How can we use best practices and current research to improve our ability to predict the future?
This program will examine budgeting pitfalls and ways to avoid budget traps. We will discuss the risks that cause actual results to vary from our predictions and discuss methods to deal with both known and unknown risks.
DESIGNED FOR
Those who prepare, review, evaluate and use budgets and projections
BENEFITS
Examine current best practices in forecasting to help us prepare better budgets and projections
HIGHLIGHTS
Making Predictions
Why great predictions are not intuitive
How to separate correlation from causation
How to recognize and overcome bias
Who is Thomas Bayes and why he matters
Becoming a Great Predictor
Why the ability to doubt helps
Why it is better to be a fox than a hedgehog
How non-conformists change the world
Learn from the past without hindsight bias
Creating Great Projections and Budgets
Why the many purposes and types of budgets and projections cause distortions
How benchmarking and metrics have changed the budget process
Why Black Swan Risk Matters
What is Black Swan risk?
Why the risk you don't know can hurt you
Protect your company from unknowable risks COURSE LEVEL
Intermediate
PREREQUISITES
Participants should have at least six months of industry or public experience and a thorough knowledge of financial accounting principles and practices. Management experience is helpful.
ADVANCE PREPARATION
Have a calculator available.